Predicting the Future (may involve rogue asteroids)
StevePredicting the future out to the next 40 years or so across the broad spectrum of politics, technology, arts, and the workplace is no easy feat. And furthermore creating a map of sorts that attempts to understand future trends and how they may intersect, is really tricky. And last, designing such a visual, and have it look like a massive city subway guide is just about impossible.
But the folks at the Now and Next blog did just that, by creating their '2010 Trends : A Map for the Future'. Here is just a tiny snippet of the map, showing a few of the predictions for the 'Work and Business' line.
The full map can be opened and downloaded here.
Some of the other lines on the map are Society & Culture, The Economy, and Transport. Sadly there was no prediction offered for the development of flying cars.
While the map is really meant to be fun, (one of the 'risks' mentioned is a 'Rogue Asteroid'), there are a few items on the Work & Business line that I thought were interesting and perhaps more likely to pan out than the 'Self-repairing roads' prediction on the Transport line.
1. 25% of company HQ's now virtual - This prediction seems like it both makes sense, could really happen, and will also be very difficult to measure. Still, the movement towards more flexible and in many case virtual work is undeniable. It only makes sense that more companies will go entirely virtual, 'meeting' only in a mix up coffee shops, co-working locations, virtual worlds, with teleprescence, and in fast-food restaurants.
2. Generational conflict in the workplace - Well aren't we already seeing at least a little of that? With millions unemployed, and a higher percentage looking for work among the younger generations, and more and more experienced workers both living and working longer, the seeds for more conflict are certainly in place. I still think the effective management, and balancing of the four generations in the workplace is going to be a significant challenge and opportunity in the near future.
3. Widespread use of brain scans in job interviews - While this specific prediction is certainly pretty far out there, (although this article is fairly bullish on the idea), I think a better way to think about this is around how the assessment and interview process can be improved. Can other, less invasive assessment processes be developed to serve as better, and more consistent predictors of job fit and likelihood of success in a given company in a given role? Particularly in a more fast-moving and changing environment, making the 'right' hire the first time is even more critical. Can brain scans accomplish this? We will see.
If you have a few minutes, have a look at the entire map and let us know what you think.
In the next 40 years are we more likely to see brain scan interviewing or the rogue asteroid?
Reader Comments (6)
I'd been tipped off to this diagram a week or so ago and have been thinking about it ever since. 40 years is less than my working life, and the changes in technology I've seen, in all areas of technology, have been beyond far out as viewed from 1963. What hasn't changed much, and more's the pity, is human nature, individual and group behavior. For example, we've had a wide range of predictive techniques for job performance for all of my career, many developed by the military in WWII to help select, train and assign pilots, but very few corporations today have been willing to invest in the competency modeling, selection/testing of predictive assessment methods/tools, and rigorous application of same across their workforces, relying instead on adhoc interview questions by less than well-trained hiring managers who more often than not use "chemistry" as their selection criteria. We need a revolution in much more than technology/learning/best practices/etc.; we need a revolution in leadership and human behavior. I might add that such a revolution would improve a lot more than business outcomes.
@Naomi - Thanks very much for the comments, I agree that many assessment and interviewing processes could stand to benefit from the analytical approach that you suggest. I sometimes think we screen our choice of office supplies vendor with far more rigor and care than many of our most important hires. Thanks again!
Nice Site. I am new here but will be visiting more often as you have done a good job.
Great post Steve! This helps keep perspective when planning for 2010 can be daunting.
@Eric - Thanks very much!
@karin - Thanks for reading and for your comments, let's have a great 2010 and look forward to the future (and evade the asteroids)
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