REPRISE: The State of the Future

Note: The blog is taking some well-deserved rest for the next two weeks (that is code for I am pretty much out of decent ideas, and I doubt most folks are spending their holidays reading blogs anyway), and will be re-running some of best, or at least most interesting posts from 2013. Maybe you missed these the first time around or maybe you didn't really miss them, but either way they are presented for your consideration. Thanks to everyone who stopped by in 2013!

Since it is New Year's Day, and I am purposefully avoiding writing an inane 'predictions' post  (Wow, do you really think mobile will be big in 2014?), I found the closest thing to the same kind of piece in the 2013 archive. The below post took a look at what people who make a living attempting to see the future, i.e. Futurists, talk about when they get together to talk about the Future. The piece originally ran in July 2013.

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The State of the Future

Pretty much every HR/workplace/talent blog or blogger has at one time or another taken a stab at defining or predicting the 'Workplace of the future' or tried to opine on 'The future of work.' Speculating on the future is kind of fun for a blogger, I know I have done a bunch of pieces like that over the years. Those kind of posts are also fun due to the complete lack of accountability towards the accuracy of any of the predictions. I could post that intelligent and full articulated robots like Atlas, (aside - Atlas is super cool, and I have to post about him/her/it separately), will replace all HR/Talent functions in the organization by 2020 and pretty much feel confident even if I am wrong, no one is going to call me out about it seven years from now.

But there is another category of folks that spend even more time waxing philosophic about the future - actual futurists. People who spend pretty much all their time trying to spot new trends, consider what new technologies may emerge, (and how existing ones will change the world), and often try to help companies and governments with long, and even really long-term planning.  

And when futurists get together, they talk about the future - duh!. And just like in the HR space when after a big event like SHRM or HR Tech there are articles posted that reflect not just on the event itself, but also on the industry overall. And often these 'state of the industry/discipline' pieces are more interesting than specific or detailed event reports. A really good industry thinker is concerned more with and attempts to make these larger connections and conclusions by piecing together, comparing, and connecting lots of smaller data points.

So why did I start this post talking about futurists?

Because over the weekend I read this really interesting piece titled Dispatch From the Futures: Thoughts on WorldFuture2013, about a recent conference for futurists, and the overall state of that discipline - a kind of 'State of the Future' if that makes sense. 

In the piece, the author breaks down what he/she, sees as some of the challenges facing the folks who get paid to see into the future, and while I encourage you to check out the entire piece, I'm going to drop a couple of the issues raised here, as I think they do resonate with folks in the HR/Talent space.

From the Futurist:

Radar or Canvass?  Is foresight and the work of futurists primarily focused on scanning for dangerous futures (radar) or building new ones (canvass)?  Again, this is a false dichotomy, but an important one.  My sense is that governments and larger corporations focus on radar, while innovative companies focus on the canvass.  And this thought experiment leads me to one of the more interesting questions posed at WorldFuture. 

HR takeaway?

When faced with something new - like the emergence of social media, or of wearable technology, or of changing demands of a new generation of workers - how much time do you spend thinking and preparing for the worst, or at least thinking about things through a lens of risk mitigation? What percent of your time is spent developing ways to positively leverage these changes?

From the Futurist:

New Novelties vs. Megatrends: There is a tension between learning about entirely new future scenarios on one hand and exploring the evolution of already identified megatrends.  Take 3D printing.  Most of my friends at WorldFuture were already well aware of 3D printing and its impacts on the futures.  But, despite the fact that most futurists were all over 3D printing several years ago, this tech is still in its infancy and could revolutionize manufacturing and commerce.  It’s a huge and important trend worthy of study regardless of how long it’s been on your radar.

HR takeaway?

It is really easy to want to jump two or three steps ahead of the organization and push for adoption of the very latest and coolest new thing. But are you getting the most benefit out of the 'old' tools and technologies you already possess? Chances are there is a lot of untapped potential in things that seem old, but really are new to you and your teams. You don't always need to be first to adopt something in order to seem cool.

From the Futurist:

Resilience:  Although very few sessions covered this topic, many of my discussions were on resilience.  If the industrial era was about efficiency, perhaps the near future will be most about resilience, as people and societies develop hedging strategies as a means of coping with dramatic change.  How might we classify these resilience strategies? 

HR takeaway?

Are you assessing candidates for something like resilience? Are you coaching managers and leaders to instill this trait in their teams? Do you even consider yourself and your HR shop to be resilient? If the futurists are right about this one, it seems like you should be thinking just a little about how or not your organization stacks up here.

Like I mentioned you should take a few minutes and check out the entire piece here and I will let it go at that.

You might think that the Futurists are kind of the modern-day snake oil hucksters, but one thing is for certain - the future is coming for you and your organization whether you are prepared for it or not.

The State of the Future

Pretty much every HR/workplace/talent blog or blogger has at one time or another taken a stab at defining or predicting the 'Workplace of the future' or tried to opine on 'The future of work.' Speculating on the future is kind of fun for a blogger, I know I have done a bunch of pieces like that over the years. Those kind of posts are also fun due to the complete lack of accountability towards the accuracy of any of the predictions. I could post that intelligent and full articulated robots like Atlas, (aside - Atlas is super cool, and I have to post about him/her/it separately), will replace all HR/Talent functions in the organization by 2020 and pretty much feel confident even if I am wrong, no one is going to call me out about it seven years from now.

But there is another category of folks that spend even more time waxing philosophic about the future - actual futurists. People who spend pretty much all their time trying to spot new trends, consider what new technologies may emerge, (and how existing ones will change the world), and often try to help companies and governments with long, and even really long-term planning.  

And when futurists get together, they talk about the future - duh!. And just like in the HR space when after a big event like SHRM or HR Tech there are articles posted that reflect not just on the event itself, but also on the industry overall. And often these 'state of the industry/discipline' pieces are more interesting than specific or detailed event reports. A really good industry thinker is concerned more with and attempts to make these larger connections and conclusions by piecing together, comparing, and connecting lots of smaller data points.

So why did I start this post talking about futurists?

Because over the weekend I read this really interesting piece titled Dispatch From the Futures: Thoughts on WorldFuture2013, about a recent conference for futurists, and the overall state of that discipline - a kind of 'State of the Future' if that makes sense. 

In the piece, the author breaks down what he/she, sees as some of the challenges facing the folks who get paid to see into the future, and while I encourage you to check out the entire piece, I'm going to drop a couple of the issues raised here, as I think they do resonate with folks in the HR/Talent space.

From the Futurist:

Radar or Canvass?  Is foresight and the work of futurists primarily focused on scanning for dangerous futures (radar) or building new ones (canvass)?  Again, this is a false dichotomy, but an important one.  My sense is that governments and larger corporations focus on radar, while innovative companies focus on the canvass.  And this thought experiment leads me to one of the more interesting questions posed at WorldFuture. 

HR takeaway?

When faced with something new - like the emergence of social media, or of wearable technology, or of changing demands of a new generation of workers - how much time do you spend thinking and preparing for the worst, or at least thinking about things through a lens of risk mitigation? What percent of your time is spent developing ways to positively leverage these changes?

From the Futurist:

New Novelties vs. Megatrends: There is a tension between learning about entirely new future scenarios on one hand and exploring the evolution of already identified megatrends.  Take 3D printing.  Most of my friends at WorldFuture were already well aware of 3D printing and its impacts on the futures.  But, despite the fact that most futurists were all over 3D printing several years ago, this tech is still in its infancy and could revolutionize manufacturing and commerce.  It’s a huge and important trend worthy of study regardless of how long it’s been on your radar.

HR takeaway?

It is really easy to want to jump two or three steps ahead of the organization and push for adoption of the very latest and coolest new thing. But are you getting the most benefit out of the 'old' tools and technologies you already possess? Chances are there is a lot of untapped potential in things that seem old, but really are new to you and your teams. You don't always need to be first to adopt something in order to seem cool.

From the Futurist:

Resilience:  Although very few sessions covered this topic, many of my discussions were on resilience.  If the industrial era was about efficiency, perhaps the near future will be most about resilience, as people and societies develop hedging strategies as a means of coping with dramatic change.  How might we classify these resilience strategies? 

HR takeaway?

Are you assessing candidates for something like resilience? Are you coaching managers and leaders to instill this trait in their teams? Do you even consider yourself and your HR shop to be resilient? If the futurists are right about this one, it seems like you should be thinking just a little about how or not your organization stacks up here.

Like I mentioned you should take a few minutes and check out the entire piece here and I will let it go at that.

You might think that the Futurists are kind of the modern-day snake oil hucksters, but one thing is for certain - the future is coming for you and your organization whether you are prepared for it or not.

Some 2013 Tech Trends - Micro-networks and Human Appeal

There have already been a slew of '2013 Tech Predictions' or 'Trends to Watch for in 2013' pieces already written, and no doubt the next few weeks will see scores more.  I'll probably chime in with one myself early next year, but would prefer to hold off for a bit and employ the classic 'Fourth Bidder Strategy' from the The Price is Right.  Essentially, I want to read as many of these 'predictions' posts as I can before weighing in with mine. I bid one dollar, Bob.

In doing research for my upcoming reasoned analysis of the big trends in technology in 2013, I did find this excellent presentation, (embedded below, email and RSS subscribers may need to click through), titled '20 Tech Trends for 2013' from the San Francisco design firm Frog Design. Take a look through the deck, and I have a couple of takes about the HR, HR Technology, and Workplace implications of the trends that Frog identifies.

2013 Tech Trends from frog

Some interesting trends and takes for 2013 I think. But there are two that I specifically want to call out as I think that they are pretty accurate and they do have some direct tie-in to the work we do in HR and HR Technology.

Devices with Human Appeal (starts from Slide 7) - These trends or predictions are a few different aspects of an emerging theme that posits technology, interfaces, machine intelligences.etc. are getting smaller, more ubiquitous, and have the potential to interact with us more seamlessly and more intimately. The suggestion for workplace and HR technologies are many - equipping field and customer-facing staff with more lightweight and intelligent (learning) apps, building tools that do more than collect information, but can interpret it and make subtle workplace adjustments, and technologies that feel more like apps - not in how they are accessed but how they perform, doing one or two things only, but doing them exceedingly well.

Specialized Social Networks (starts from Slide 29) - Some interesting contexts (in health care, community organizing), that highlight the fact that as networks continue to get larger and larger, than real value and opportunity comes from exploiting the sub or micro networks that from within them. Think of any large organization, (especially ones with multiple locations), not as a collective network, but as a collection of sub-networks.  There are definitely some important implications for HR Tech I think, from designing systems for local needs, to supporting more close-to-the-front-line technologies, and to developing for more flexibility and local adaptation and adoption.

Mostly these '2013 Predictions' pieces are kind of silly, designed for page view generation and such. But I really did like the set from Frog, as instead of simply extending incrementally the things we are doing today for another 12 months, these ideas challenge us as technologists and designers of the employee/customer/user experience to think a little bolder, a little more expansively.

The truth is that 2013 will look and feel a lot like 2012. But I suppose it doesn't have to. And for the most successful organizations and people, it probably will look radically different.

Predicting the Future (may involve rogue asteroids)

Predicting the future out to the next 40 years or so across the broad spectrum of politics, technology, arts, and the workplace is no easy feat.  And furthermore creating a map of sorts that attempts to understand future trends and how they may intersect, is really tricky.  And last, designing such a visual, and have it look like a massive city subway guide is just about impossible.

But the folks at the Now and Next blog did just that, by creating their '2010 Trends : A Map for the Future'. Here is just a tiny snippet of the map, showing a few of the predictions for the 'Work and Business' line.

The full map can be opened and downloaded here.

Some of the other lines on the map are Society & Culture, The Economy, and Transport.  Sadly there was no prediction offered for the development of flying cars.

While the map is really meant to be fun, (one of the 'risks' mentioned is a 'Rogue Asteroid'), there are a few items on the Work & Business line that I thought were interesting and perhaps more likely to pan out than the 'Self-repairing roads' prediction on the Transport line.

1. 25% of company HQ's now virtual - This prediction seems like it both makes sense, could really happen, and will also be very difficult to measure.  Still, the movement towards more flexible and in many case virtual work is undeniable.  It only makes sense that more companies will go entirely virtual, 'meeting' only in a mix up coffee shops, co-working locations, virtual worlds, with teleprescence, and in fast-food restaurants.

2. Generational conflict in the workplace - Well aren't we already seeing at least a little of that?  With millions unemployed, and a higher percentage looking for work among the younger generations, and more and more experienced workers both living and working longer, the seeds for more conflict are certainly in place. I still think the effective management, and balancing of the four generations in the workplace is going to be a significant challenge and opportunity in the near future.

3. Widespread use of brain scans in job interviews - While this specific prediction is certainly pretty far out there, (although this article is fairly bullish on the idea), I think a better way to think about this is around how the assessment and interview process can be improved.  Can other, less invasive assessment processes be developed to serve as better, and more consistent predictors of job fit and likelihood of success in a given company in a given role?  Particularly in a more fast-moving and changing environment, making the 'right' hire the first time is even more critical. Can brain scans accomplish this? We will see.

If you have a few minutes, have a look at the entire map and let us know what you think. 

In the next 40 years are we more likely to see brain scan interviewing or the rogue asteroid?

My 2010 Predictions (Like I really know)

These wise, sage, prescient prognostications were originally posted over at William Tincup's JPIE, I am taking the liberty to re-run them here.

Yes, that does mean I did not finish the 'real' post intended for today, but as a method of preview, it involves a discussion of 'Going back to Shawshank'.

Forget that for now, here are my three predictions for the Human Capital space for 2010: Flickr - Maribelle71

Networking

• Smart organizations will recognize the value in employee networks, both internal and external, and develop strategies and implement technologies to help grow, enhance, and leverage these networks to increase revenue and profitability.  Most other organizations will worry about blocking Facebook and trying to pay for more storage space on their MS Exchange servers.

 Trust

• Trust of employers by employees will continue to erode, and only the very best companies, the ones that respect, support, and develop employees will see their long-term prospects for growth and success enhanced. The exception being energy companies and health insurers, they will rake in profits in 2010 no matter how they treat their employees and customers.

 Mobile

• Workforce technology will go more ‘mobile’, partially fueled by worker’s expectations and demands, and mostly due to employer’s realizing if everyone has an iPhone or BlackBerry that can easily access company systems that most top performers will work morning, noon, and night. Employees will begin to negotiate ‘non-working’ hours in employment contracts instead of employers demanding adherence to a schedule of ‘working hours’.

What do you think? 

Do I need to hurry up and get the 'Shawshank' post done?

Have a wonderful 2010!